Pollsters are calling the state a toss-up, and recent numbers show Barack Obama up slightly in North Carolina.

North Carolina?

While the state was once a member in good standing of the solid south, North Carolina has changed over the past decade, as highly educated workers are drawn to the Research Triangle of Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill. The three Congressional districts in this area are represented by Democrats, and Democrats make up the majority of the state’s registered voters and Congressional delegation.

North Carolina was the fastest-growing state last year, and it also had the second-highest number of new Latinos (after Texas). Though only two percent of the electorate is Latino (the 35th largest share of any state’s electorate), this population could help tilt a tight race toward Democrats.

Over the past several months, educated whites, African-Americans (who make up a fifth of North Carolinians) and Latinos have helped drive North Carolina toward Obama. The Obama camp has reacted by expanding its Spanish-language ads from highly Latino states like New Mexico and Florida, into North Carolina and other states with smaller but significant Latino populations.

The effects of North Carolina’s changing tide are already apparent in the state’s Senate race. Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R), who succeeded infamous conservative Jesse Helms in 2000, is down in the polls and seems likely to lose a seat that has been in GOP hands since 1973.