Colorado

“well over 100,000“: record-breaking number of supporters who came out to hear Barack Obama speak at the foot of the capitol in Denver on Sunday

2.5 miles: length of the line to get into an Obama rally in Fort Collins minutes before it was scheduled to begin Sunday afternoon; 45,000 were estimated to have made it in

60,305: registered Democrats in Larimer County, which includes Fort Collins; the county has 74,466 registered Republicans and 74,645 unaffiliated voters

4,000: size of the “raucous” crowd John McCain drew in Denver on Friday; 6,000-8,000 turned out to greet the Republican candidate in Durango later that day

Sen. John McCain’s more intimate rally in Denver on Friday (AP)

1,051,643 — 1,063,347 — 1,069,294: the number of registered Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated voters, respectively, statewide

698,000: the number of Coloradans who voted at early-polling locations or by mail as of Sunday, representing 22 percent of the state’s 3.2 million registered voters

9: electoral votes represented by the Centennial State

Nevada and New Mexico after the jump

Sen. Barack Obama takes the stage in Las Vegas on Saturday (Getty Images)

Nevada

11,000 and 18,000: supporters who turned out to hear Barack Obama in Reno and Las Vegas, respectively, on Saturday

186,849: people who have already cast ballots in Clark County early voting as of Saturday; 103,719 were registered Democrats compared to 52,850 registered Republicans

4.2 points: Obama’s lead among Nevada voters, according to the latest state poll results released today by Zogby International; 44.0 percent of respondents support John McCain, 48.2 percent support Obama, and 7.8 percent were undecided

7 points: McCain’s edge in a poll conducted in August, his largest-ever advantage in the state in a single poll; most polls had the Republican ahead from mid-August through late September

79: days since McCain’s last trip to Nevada; Gov. Sarah Palin made stops in Reno and Henderson last week

5: electoral votes represented by the Silver State

Sen. John McCain shakes hands in Albuquerque on Saturday (Getty Images)

New Mexico

fewer than 1,500 and more than 45,000: respective sizes of McCain’s and Obama’s Saturday rallies in Albuquerque

4 points: estimated lead McCain would have if Latino voters were excluded, according to figures compiled by the William C. Velasquez Institute; including Latinos, who make up one-third of New Mexico voters, Obama has an 8 point advantage in the state

5,988: number of more votes George W. Bush won in the state than John Kerry in 2004, clinching his reelection; Al Gore carried the state in 2000 by 366 votes

593,761 — 375,420 — 182,716: number of registered Democrats, Republicans, and voters who decline to state their affiliation as of October 23

5: electoral votes up for grabs in the Land of Enchantment

The National Republican Senatorial Committee confirmed today it was pulling it’s support from the Colorado race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Wayne Allard. Rumors of the pullout began circulating last week, but subsided after NRSC chairman Sen. John Ensign said, “We’re going to stay there up until the end,” at a National Press Club breakfast Tuesday and the committee released a new ad attacking “Boulder Liberal” Mark Udall on Thursday.

New ad released before NRSC pulled support

Taking Ensign at his word, apparently this once-competitive race is over, with Udall widening his lead over Republican challenger Bob Schaffer to 8 points in the latest average of polls.

The NRSC will stop running ads next week, and their pullout follows that of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee earlier this week. But while theDSCC move was seen as a sign of confidence that their candidate has a comfortable lead and doesn’t need their help in the last few days of the campaign, the NRSC pullout smells of desperation and not wanting to throw good money after bad.

“The NRSC found out the hard way that not only have their ads backfired and turned off voters, but that Coloradans are standing with Mark Udall,” Udall spokeswoman Tara Trujillo told the Denver Post.

Schaffer campaign manager Dick Wadhams told the Post he thinks the race is still winnable, but didn’t sound happy about the NRSC move. “That’s what they decided and we’ll live with it,” he said.

Democrats are gunning for a filibuster-proof 60-seats in the Senate, and Colorado and New Mexico (where Tom Udall, Mark’s cousin, has a comfortable lead) look like “done deals,” said Washington Post political blogger Chris Cillizza.

Rumors that John McCain was also giving up Colorado were denied by the campaign earlier this week, and the candidate was quickly dispatched to the Mile High State to rally his supporters.

Looking at the current political landscape and demographic shifts, Richard Martin writes in New West that Colorado is turning blue, not purple. “The West is likely to be a bellwether for a dramatic shift toward Democratic principles and candidates, with Colorado on the leading edge. If that happens, it’s possible the Democrats could solidify their ascendancy for a generation.”

Stop Calling Me

Living in California, I’m unlikely to feel the pain of swing staters anytime soon. The calls, the knocks on the door, the endless ads. With early voting underway in Nevada and other swing states, Las Vegas Sun reporter David McGrath Schwartz writes that voters “see the voting booth as an escape hatch from the ever-present election.”

Though the Sun article speaks broadly to the political climate in Nevada, while I was reporting throughout the state last week, it’s the Obama campaign that appears to be the more energized — and thus the bigger nuisance. But it’s unclear if or when the line is crossed that turns off supporters or keeps them from the polls.

In Reno, a young woman registering to vote told me she was annoyed with the Obama campaign’s persistence — “they come [to my door], and they call, and they email,” she said — but she still planned on casting her vote for the Democrat.

In rural Elko, an Obama volunteer and supporter whose dedication extends to housing an out-of-state campaign staffer heading up the local office told me she started taking her orders to make more calls with a grain of salt. “It’s getting to be too much,” she said, noting that some people in her small community would be turned off afterreceiving a third, fourth, or fifth call. And with people from out of state calling Nevada voters, she said her first call was often times the person on the other end’s third contact.

Not one person I spoke to — Democrat, Republican, or undecided — said they were contacted too much by the McCain camp, and many said they hadn’t been contacted by Republicans at all.

Nevada has a “Please Do Not Call” list (since political speech is protected, only campaigns that volunteer to abide by the list will stop calling) and Nevadans can apply for confidential voter status to remove their address and phone number from their voter file.

To stop the hard sell, some early voters are putting up signs to let canvassers know they can keep walking, and Obama spokeswoman Kirsten Searer tells the Sun, “we tease voters sometimes that one way to stop getting phone calls and mail is to vote.”

Candidates Hit Battle For The West States This Weekend

With Obama looking to solidify his leads in Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, and McCain looking to staunch the bleeding and eke out a win in at least one of the states, both candidates are headed west.

Obama will hit Reno Saturday morning, then Las Vegas, and end his day in Albequerque. On Sunday, the Democratic candidate returns to Denver then heads further north to Fort Collins.

John McCain, flanked by former Broncos Quarterback John Elway, at a rally in Denver Friday (Getty Images)

Friday is Colorado day for McCain. The Republican candidate spoke in Denver this morning, is en route to Colorado Springs as I type, and will end the day with a rally in Durango. The candidate will cross paths with his rival in Albuquerque on Saturday, with an additional stop in Las Cruces. (Curiously missing from his regional itinerary: Nevada. McCain hasn’t shown his face in the state since early August, though Gov. Sarah Palin has made several appearances. Is he ceding the state, where he came in third in the Republican caucuses behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul?)

Reno to Elko

From the Siena Hotel Spa Casino in Reno to the Red Lion Hotel & Casino in Elko.

Distance: 291 miles
Time: 3 hours, 43 mins
Images shot: 1,084

Elko to Las Vegas after the jump

Elko to Las Vegas

From the Red Lion Hotel & Casino in Elko to the Grandview at Las Vegas.

Distance: 480 miles
Time: 7 hours, 5 mins
Images shot: 783
Of note: at 15 secs, stopped for road work; 48 secs, stopped for speeding ticket

*Images shot with Canon PowerShot A710 running CHDK hack, compiled into video using QuickTime Pro.

A cutout of Barack Obama at a Mexican Independence Day celebration in Denver last month (Getty Images)

New Mexico took center stage over the weekend on a 20-minute segment — New Voters in the New West — on NOW in PBS. Reporter Maria Hinojosa calls New Mexico “the battleground of battleground states” as she follows both campaigns’ efforts in the state. The report focuses on young voters and Latinos.

In 2004, Republicans won the state by just shy of 6,000 votes. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, who campaigned for Sen. John Kerry in 2004 and is trying to deliver the state in November for Sen. Barack Obama told Hinojosa, “Senator Kerry is still mad at me.”

Obama has 39 field offices in the state compared to 10 for McCain and 6 for Kerry last cycle. The PBS report tries to run against conventional wisdom, following around a group of college-aged McCain supporters and highlighting lingering concerns among the usually Democratic-leaning Latino community.

“It’s risky for Obama’s campaign to assume that we’re going to vote Democrat just because we’re registered Democrat,” community activisit Arturo Uribe said. Uribe, who is seen encouraging community members to register to vote but not backing a candidate in the report, said race, religion, and other factors mean Obama can’t take the Latino community for granted. He also said some Latinos worry that with an African-American president, blacks would become the “preferred minority.”

“I’d rather go with the old man,” one middle aged Latino man told a group of Obama canvassers. “He’s got the experience.”

In a poll of New Mexico voters conducted last week for the Albuquerque Journal, “62 percent of Hispanics surveyed favored Obama, while 17 percent backed McCain and 21 percent were undecided.” Brian Sanderoff, president of the firm that conducted the poll, estimated that Bush carried up to 38 percent of the Latino vote in the state in 2004. Among all likely voters polled,Obama is ahead of McCain 45 to 40 percent.

In Colorado, where Latinos are expected to account for more than 10 percent of voters for the first time and could thus determine who carries the state, a recent poll has Obama ahead of McCain among Latino voters 68 to 26 percent.

The Obama campaign’s registration and get out the vote efforts are bolstered by nonprofit groups that target low income communities, including many that are predominately Latino. The Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN), a coalition of groups targeting low income families, announced today that it exceeded goals in Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico in its voter registration efforts with Project Vote.

A subset of Latinos being courted are new citizens. Jeffrey Passel, a senior demographer with the Pew Hispanic Center, told the AP, “In places where the election is very close, they make all the difference in the world,” New citizens, like other first time voters, are excited to cast their first ballot and tend to be good ambassadors in their communities, either for particular candidates or simply to promote the importance of civic engagement.

“We can make the difference in these elections,” Arturo Munoz, a Salvadoran native who became a U.S. citizen in August, told the AP through a translator. “If more Hispanics vote, the future president will have to address topics important to them.”

VP Debate Editorials and Columns in the Battle for the West

Denver Post: “Palin had fun. But her frequent dependence on cheerful phrases like ‘darn it’ or ‘doggone it’ and her avoidance of specifics and entire lines of questions will no doubt keep her critics on the attack… Palin’s biggest task is convincing undecided voters that she could lead should she have to, and it’s hard to see whether her performance, as clean as it was, held enough substance to sway them.”

Las Vegas Review-Journal: “Gov. Palin actually looked like she was enjoying herself, especially as the evening wore on, whereas Sen. Biden, as the evening progressed, looked more like a scowling sourpuss…if Americans are looking for a fresh new face, someone who can connect with ‘Main Street,’ Gov. Palin’s performance — perhaps she ‘lost on points’ — might help push the Republican ticket toward victory.”

Las Vegas Sun: “[Palin] smiled a lot and certainly was folksy, peppering her comments with phrases such as ‘I’ll betcha’ and ‘heck of a lot.’ There is nothing wrong with a down-to-earth demeanor — we wish more politicians were like that. At the same time, however, folksiness can’t substitute for substance. The Bush presidency is a case in point.”

Pueblo Colorado Chieftan columnist Chuck Green: “Palin showed… she could stand toe-to-toe with one of the Senate’s best. But she didn’t display an impressive grasp of issues and didn’t display a great sense of confidence. Biden projected confidence and a wide range of knowledge on several issues, but he misstated the facts or outright lied about the historical record at least six times during the 90-minute production. He might look like a statesmanlike U.S. senator and exude confidence, but Americans still can’t believe what comes out of his mouth.”

Reno Gazette-Journal: “Can we please bring back the final ‘g’ in words ending in ‘-ing’? Palin seems to drop it — as in ‘I was talkin’ to some soccer moms’ — to show that she’s one of the folks, but Sen. Barack Obama does it, too, and so does seemingly every TV newscaster in Reno. That may be OK in casual talk among friends, but it has no place in formal speechmaking… Just as we expect candidates to pronounce the name of our state right, we should expect them to pronounce ‘-ing’ right. It may not be folksy, but it is presidential.”

Rocky Mountain News columnist Mike Littwin: “In any case, even if Biden won in the instant-polls, Palin did well enough in memorizing talking points and occasionally winking that the McCain campaign is sending her immediately to Colorado… McCain probably can’t lose Colorado – where he’s trailing in the polls – and win the election.”

Santa Fe New Mexican columnist Bill Stewart: “[Palin] was folksy and friendly, deflecting questions for which she was unprepared… Palin connects on a personal level. It is probably her greatest political strength. It is one of Biden’s strengths as well. He teared up when talking about the challenge of being a single father following the tragic deaths of his first wife and his daughter.”

Civil War Over Political Relevance in NV

“If we are not careful, the North may become the center of Nevada’s political universe,” warns the Las Vegas Sun‘s Jon Ralston in an appeal to his fellow southern Nevadans. “Washoe County may go Democratic and Reno already has, perhaps making the North decisive. This cannot stand. The South must rise again!”

Ralston points to the recent stories in the New York Times and Los Angeles Times with Washoe County datelines as evidence for the shift in influence. The little swing county that could may be the sexier story for national media, but Las Vegas’s Clark County still accounts for more than two-thirds of all registered voters in the state.

Perhaps that’s why eight of Sen. Barack Obama’s 16 field offices in the state are in Clark County. For comparison, Sen. John McCain’s campaign has nine locations — some of them shared space with local GOP offices — and 2004 Democratic candidate John Kerry maintained two offices four years ago, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “Clearly, Obama had a head start on building grass-roots support,” Reno-based Republican consultant and lobbyist Pete Ernaut told the Review-Journal. “McCain’s campaign has been playing catch-up.”

Observations

On Saturday, the New York Times offered snapshot portraits of five cities being heavily courted by both campaigns; three are in Battle for the West states. They turned to local reporters or columnists, not Times staff writers, to file the reports.

Pueblo, Colorado

“Pueblo is traditionally a Democratic town, though conservative Democrat… McCain is looking for those disenchanted independents, he’s looking for those Hillary voters, he’s looking for Hispanic voters. Everyone is aware of the long-held tensions between African-Americans and Hispanics; he’s looking for whatever Hispanics he can pick up.” – Peter Roper, political reporter, The Pueblo Chieftain

Elko, Nevada

“George Bush might not be our president if not for Elko, which proves beyond a shadow of any doubt that every vote truly does count. But this election could be Elko’s last hurrah… Clearly, Elko County with its huge conservative base will carry the day for McCain-Palin, but by how much? Enough to offset Obama’s doubtless victory in Clark County, home to Las Vegas where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 100,000? I wouldn’t bet my paycheck on that one.” – Doug McMurdo, associate editor, Elko Daily Free Press

Las Cruces, New Mexico

“Las Cruces has always been a Democratic-leaning community, but socially conservative on values like guns and religion… I have read media accounts of Hispanic voters being reluctant to vote forObama, or any black candidate. If that sentiment exists, I haven’t seen it.” – Walt Rubell, managing editor, Las Cruces Sun-News

Two new polls have Sen. Barack Obama ahead of Sen. John McCain in Nevada. An InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position survey of 437 likely voters has Obama up 48 to 47 percent. A CNN/Time Magazine poll conducted by Opinion Research Corp. has the Illinois senator up 51 to 47 percent among likely voters, and 54 to 43 percent among all registered voters.

With young voters and people who didn’t make it to the polls in 2004 overwhelmingly supporting Obama, it’s not unreasonable to assume that likely voter polls are underestimating Obama’s support. Among the criteria used to determine voting likelihood is past voter behavior. Factor in people missed by pollsters entirely — like cell-phone only users — and the race might be less of a nail biter than it appears.

“The national polls have moved in Obama’s direction since the beginning of the financial crisis,” Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, told the Las Vegas Review Journal. “The state polls are following the national polls.”

New figures show Democrats hold just shy of 94,000 voter registration advantage over Republican; in Washoe County, Republicans’ registration lead has fallen to just 1,997. More than 40,000 Washoe County voters are registered non-partisan.

“I can say public polls show 80 percent of people in this country feel things are headed in the wrong direction. Independent voters see a clear choice in this election,” Jeff Giertz, an Obama campaign spokesman, told the Reno Gazette-Journal.

But Heidi Smith, county Republican Party chairwoman, told the Gazette-Journal that many independents are Republicans who just don’t want to declare their party. Interesting theory.

Obama’s ground game helped spur the recent turnaround in the polls and sparked the surge in new registrations. “What you see in Nevada is what we’ve been seeing all across the country so far. [The Obama] campaign has an overwhelming number of volunteers and organizers on the ground,” Sean Quinn, a reporter with the political website fivethirtyeight.com, told the Christian Science Monitor.

CSM reporter Ben Arnoldy followed around both campaigns in Las Vegas. Arnoldy noted that in the office, McCain phonebankers used an automated system that allowed them to move through their lists at least twice as fast. “The real ace in the hole from the McCain camp’s perspective is their high-tech, streamlined approach,”Arnoldy wrote.

Unfortunately, their perceived advantage didn’t always translate to the street, leading Arnoldy to conclude that “if the McCain campaign had a database advantage, it wasn’t on display on a recent weekend in Las Vegas. Six out of nearly 40 doors knocked on one McCain canvass turned out to be wrong, while an Obama canvasser just encountered one vacant home.”

Among the Obama volunteers in Nevada are hundreds from solidly-blue California. “More visibility of enthusiasm for Obama is a good thing,” University of California, Santa Cruz, professor of politics Bob Meister told the Santa Cruz Sentinel. But he warns out-of-towners could rub some Nevadans the wrong way.

“I’m not going to be wearing a sign that says I’m from California, but I’ll be telling them why I’ve come to do this,” said retired school teacher and Obama volunteer Dennis Connors in the Sentinel.

Arnoldy also encountered Californians in the Silver State, something local Obama staffers didn’t exactly highlight. He writes:

The presence of out-of-state help was a detail the Obama campaign went to some lengths to mask. A campaign press official — who himself initially refused to divulge he was from California — cornered [Obama volunteer] Mr. James before an interview in an effort to get him to play down his origins. But no one who answered his knocks in Las Vegas seemed bothered by James’s California-ness.

In a personal essay on AlterNet, Patricia McBride writes about why she travelled to Nevada where she knocked on 51 doors in 115 degree heat:

I hadn’t knocked on the door of someone I didn’t know since I sold Girl Scout cookies in the sixth grade… I don’t bother strangers. I don’t particularly like it when strangers knock on my door. I’m essentially friendly, and I’m pretty smart, but the truth is I’m painfully shy and at heart a very private person. Were it not for the fact that I love my child and that I love my country deeply, and I fear what it has become, I’d really be very content to stay home and live as much like a hermit as possible. But that simply isn’t an option this year.

And what about McCain’s California supporters? McCain spokesman Rick Gorka told the Orange County Register they have no plans to bring in volunteers from California now, but they might closer to election day. George Andrews, executive director of the Republican Party of Orange County, said the local GOP chapter was focused on local efforts to deliver a resounding win for McCain in “America’s Most Republican County.” Rather than help their candidate in a state that matters, it looks like they’re going for a consolation booby prize — best McCain margin in a blue state.

If Nevada continues to be one of the handful of pure toss-up states, why the dearth of polls in the state, asks UNLV political science professor David Damore in PolitickerNV. “Two of the primary issues associated with polling in Nevada are the sporadic nature by which the polls are conducted and virtually all of the polling is done on the cheap, yielding small sample sizes and large margins of error,” Damore writes.

RealClearPolitics lists 15 presidential polls in Nevada since February; for comparison, fellow swing state Colorado has had 29 polls at last count.

The latest polls still show John McCain ahead, but on the ground Nevada’s starting to feel blue. With Democrats leading Republicans in registration by more than 76,000, why is the race still so tight — and McCain ahead — even in the few polls available in the state?

“The folks who end up in these samples tend to lean towards the old and reliable. In this case of Nevada, this means that those more likely to be sampled are those who regularly vote, hold stable addresses, and rely on landlines (e.g., rural voters who overwhelmingly favor the GOP),” Damore explains. In contrast, many of Obama’s most fervent supporters are “young, first time, cell phone only voters” who are difficult to reach by pollsters.

By the end of 2007, 15.8 percent of U.S. households were cell-only, more than triple the figure from just four years ago, according to government estimates. Though pollsters massage data with complicated weighting schemes, the rise of cell-only households poses a challenge. A 2007 report examining the cell-only problem by the Pew Center for the People & the Press sums up the challenge:

If people who can only be reached by cell phone were just like those with landlines, their absence from surveys would not create a problem for polling. But cell-only adults are very different. The National Health Interview Survey found them to be much younger, more likely to be African American or Hispanic, less likely to be married, and less likely to be a homeowner than adults with landline telephones. These demographic characteristics are correlated with a wide range of social and political behaviors.

And while a 2006 Pew survey concluded cell-only respondents answered similarly to landline users when asked about their party identification or if they’d vote for a generic Republican versus a generic Democrat, Pew’s 2008 surveys show a stark difference. Landline respondents were split down the middle, with 45 percent each choosing McCain and Obama. But the cell-only respondents favored Obama 55 to 36 percent. The most recent report concludes:

Traditional landline surveys are typically weighted to compensate for age and other demographic differences, but the process depends on the assumption that the people reached over landlines are similar politically to their cell-only counterparts. These surveys suggest that this assumption is increasingly questionable, particularly among younger people… Pew’s surveys this year suggest at least the possibility of a small bias in landline surveys. Such a bias could be consequential in an election that appears to be very competitive right now, especially if significant numbers of young people turn out to vote.

Is John McCain giving up on Nevada?

Yesterday, John McCain backed out of a planned appearance in Reno, meaning the Republican candidate hasn’t been to the Silver State since addressing the convention of Disabled American Veterans in Las Vegas August 9. Running mate Sarah Palin’s only stop in the state was her first solo campaign appearance at a rally in Carson City September 14. Obama was in Reno yesterday, and has made at least 4 stops in the state since McCain’s last visit.

Instead of trying his luck in Reno, McCain will make stops in Denver and Pueblo, Colorado, on Thursday and Friday. Since August, McCain has made 2 stops in Colorado while Obama has made at least 4, not counting appearances related to the Democratic National Convention.

Nevada is the only Battle for the West swing state where McCain has a slim lead in the polls. Obama continues to build his lead in Colorado and New Mexico.

Track the candidates campaign stops on Slate’s Map the Candidates.

Boulder Voter Registration

Judy DeHaas/Rocky Mountain News

Michelle Obama encouraged college students to register to vote at a rally at the University of Colorado in Boulder today. Both the Rocky Mountain News and Denver Post were liveblogging from the campus.

Liberal-leaning Boulder, where John Kerry beat George W. Bush by a 2-to-1 margin in 2004 countywide, is seeing a surge in voter registrations, with up to 2,000 new applications being received each day. County Clerk and Recorder Hillary Hall told the Daily Camera she expects up to 90 percent of the county’s 210,000 eligible voters to cast ballots.

Monday marks the deadline to register to vote in Colorado.

Barack Obama takes the stage Tuesday at the University of Nevada, Reno (AP)

Today’s Los Angeles Times looked at the Democratic party’s surge in registrations in Nevada, with 43 percent of registered voters to the Republicans 37 percent (compared with 2004 when Republicans had the slightest of edges with 40.5 percent versus the Dems 40.1 percent) and concluded “there may be no better test of Obama’s campaign strategy than here in Nevada.”

“The Obama campaign believes that by turning out thousands of newly registered younger and Latino voters… they can capture the Silver State’s five electoral votes,” writes Dan Hoyle in Salon.com. But getting newly registered voters to turn out is often easier said than done.

“Democrats love to tout voter registration numbers, but that’s putting the cart before the horse,” McCain spokesman Rick Gorka said in Salon.

Nevada Democrats’ “secret weapon” may be out of state volunteers who help register new voters, canvas neighborhoods to convince undecideds, and are expected to get people to the polls come election day, writes Hoyle. Alise Moss, a healthcare consultant from Sparks, Nevada, told Hoyle, “We love those crazy Californians,” and estimated up to 400 have stormed town on any given weekend.

“While registering and contacting voters here in California is a great way to be active, the reality is that California is not a contested state,” Los Angeles City Council President Eric Garcetti wrote to his supporters last week, urging them “to travel to help walk precincts and work with voters in that swing state [Nevada].”

In their “Drive for Change” push, the Obama campaign is also reaching out to California voters looking to make a difference. “Nevada is a crucial battleground in the race for the Presidency, and Barack needs support not just from all Nevadans, but also from Nevada’s neighbors — especially California. This is the chance for Californians to have a major impact on this historic race,” reads the plea on Obama’s website.

McCain cancelled a stop in Reno scheduled for Thursday, leaving some Republicans worried he’s not paying enough attention to Northern Nevada and risks losing Washoe County. “You cannot win statewide as a Republican without winning Washoe County,” Republican strategist Robert Uithoven told the Reno Gazette-Journal.

Obama is in Washoe County today speaking at the University of Nevada, Reno. The Illinois senator was planning on speaking about healthcare, but instead will focus on the economy. Likely to go over well in Nevada is a gambling metaphor recently added to Obama’s stump speech and last heard yesterday in neighboring swing state, Colorado.

“I read the other day that Sen. McCain likes to gamble. He likes to roll those dice. And that’s OK. I enjoy a little friendly game of poker myself every now and then,” Obama said. “But one thing I know is this — we can’t afford to gamble on four more years of the same disastrous economic policies we’ve had for the last eight.”

Check out liveblogging of the UNR speech by the campus paper the Nevada Sagebrush.

Bailout Voting Out West

Politicker’s James Pindell reports that incumbents in tight races overwhelmingly voted against the bailout.

There are 41 incumbent House members on Politicker.com’s The Pindell Report of the nation’s most competitive House races. Of that group 31 voted against the bailout, possibly proof that that a yes vote might be politically toxic just a little over a month from Election Day. Of the four House members running for the Senate only Maine’s Tom Allen voted for in favor.

The three congressmen running for senate that voted against the bailout hail from Battle for the West states — New Mexico’s Steve Pearce and Tom Udall and Colorado’s Mark Udall. Mark Udall’s opponent, former Rep. Bob Schaffer, also has spoken out against the bailout.

Nevada Rep. Jon Porter was the only incumbent in a tight race in the West to vote for the bailout.

The votes and comments of your Battle for the West reps:

Diana DeGette(D-CO-1), Yea: “Despite my hesitations, I supported this bill — not because I wanted to, not because it was the politically easy thing to do, but because it was the right thing to do.”

Mark Udall(D-CO-2), Nay: “The cost of this bailout was too high and the return far too uncertain for the American families who were being asked to bear the burden.”

John Salazar(D-CO-3), Nay: “Rather than adopting this bill, Congress should remain in Washington as long as it takes to craft legislation that restores confidence in the markets and helps Main Street, but doesn’t leave the American taxpayer holding the bag for the excesses of an out-of-control Wall Street.”

Marilyn Musgrave(R-CO-4), Nay: “Today I voted against a piece of legislation that was fatally flawed from the beginning. This bill was too hastily assembled and had taxpayers paying far too high a price.”

Doug Lamborn(R-CO-5), Nay: “I believe our economy will come back, stronger and better even when it hits obstacles. The key is to allow the markets to work themselves out, not be bailed out.

Tom Tancredo(R-CO-6), Yea: “I made the decision because I fear the folks who did everything the right way – those who paid their bills and lived within their means – would pay the price for the excesses of others. A careless smoker who starts a fire in his house may deserve to suffer the consequences.  We could refuse to call the fire department and take solace in the fact that the careless smoker will lose everything – but if we do not act, the embers from the fire caused by his irresponsibility may land on homes throughout the neighborhood.  In order to save our homes, we must put water on the fire started by the careless smoker.

Ed Perlmutter(D-CO-7), Yea: “My vote was important to show a bipartisan effort to stabilize our markets and help those on Main Street in these hard economic times.”

Shelley Berkley(D-NV-1), Nay: “We must produce as good a piece of legislation as possible, even in a tight time frame…If we have to come back in October to do a better job for Main Street and reform Wall Street, then so be it.”

Dean Heller(R-NV-2), Nay: “I cannot with good conscience put Nevada’s taxpayers on the hook for the foolish excesses of Wall Street.”

Jon Porter(R-NV-3), Yea: “I don’t trust Washington and I certainly don’t trust Wall Street, but I do trust that we must take immediate and decisive steps to correct our financial markets and the time is now. I voted yes today because when I go to sleep at night, I need to know that I have taken every action possible to protect America from further collapse.”

Heather Wilson(R-NM-1), Yea: “I felt it was important for Congress to act to stabilize our financial markets. Today’s bill was a ‘workout,’ not a ‘bail out,’ and had protections for taxpayers and homeowners. The bill would have given needed liquidity to the financial industry and let taxpayers share in the profits as mortgage markets recover.”

Steve Pearce(R-NM-2), Nay: “I strongly disapprove of putting taxpayers on the hook in order to bailout the Wall Street firms that got us in to this crisis. Those who made risky decisions should own up to them.”

Tom Udall(D-NM-3), Nay: “Today’s legislation provides too much to corporate executives, too little to homeowners, and nothing to ensure that Wall Street cannot repeat the mistakes that got us into this crisis.”

See a complete state by state voting breakdown here.