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A Few Surprises in Immigration-Related Races

Amy Crawford — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 04:07:51 +0000

Here’s a run-down of the races we were watching. In some, the immigration issue played a role—or failed to; in others, immigrant voters’ voices were heard. More details to come later on some of the major stories. (All results from NYTimes.com, unless linked elsewhere.)

Texas 22: Republican Pete Olson beat Democratic incumbent Rep. Nick Lampson, 52% to 45%. Which way did South Asians swing?
Pennsylvania 11: Democratic incumbent Rep. Paul Kanjorski beat Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, 52% to 48% despite polls showing Barletta with a lead throughout the fall. Is immigration no longer an issue for economically struggling Pennsylvanians?
Pennsylvania 10: Democrat Chris Carney beat Republican Chris Hackett, who was expected to benefit from Lou Barletta’s popularity. In the end, the race wasn’t even close—56% to 44%.
Florida 21: Republican Congressman Lincoln Diaz-Balart won handily 58% to 42%, despite predictions that a new generation of Latinos would turn out for his opponent, Democrat Raul Martinez.
Florida 25: Lincoln’s little brother Mario Diaz-Balart beat Democrat Joe Garcia, 53% to 47%.
Virginia 11: Gerry Connolly (D) beat Keith Fimian (R) 53% to 45% in this D.C. suburb. How did Asian and Latino immigrants vote?
North Carolina Senate: Once comfortable Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) got crushed 52% to 44% by Democrat Kay Hagan. This state has attracted large numbers of immigrants since the last election, and it went narrowly to Obama in the presidential race.
Arizona State Senate, District 18: State. Rep. Russell Pearce (R), beat Judah Nativio (D) in this mostly Republican senate district. Pearce, the hardest of immigration hardliners, is positioned to become the next Tom Tancredo.
Arizona Proposition 202 failed, 41% to 59%. This initiative, which would have prohibited anonymous complaints against businesses that employed illegal immigrants, was deemed a trick by anti-immigration activists.
Oregon Ballot Measure 58, to limit ESL classes, failed 45% to 55%.
Missouri Constitutional Amendment 1, to make English the official language, passed overwhelmingly, 86% to 14%.

Races We’re Watching: Part 1

Amy Crawford — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 17:29:38 +0000

Two days before the election, the immigration issue and/or immigrant voters are playing a big role in a handful of Congressional races. Here’s what we’re watching:

Texas 22: Democrat Nick Lampson hopes to fend off a challenge from Republican Pete Olson with the help of South Asian voters. A Zogby poll has the Republican substantially ahead, but without any other polls to back it up, it would be unwise to accept it at face value. Still, this has been a Republican district for a long time.
Pennsylvania 11: Republican Lou Barletta is poised to topple long-time incumbent Paul Kanjorski, who has faced ethics challenges and anti-incumbent feelings in this blue-collar district. Barletta, made famous by his crusade against illegal immigration, is up by a handful of points.
Pennsylvania 10: Democrat Chris Carney is locked in a tight battle with Republican Chris Hackett, who is tapping into regional support for Lou Barletta. Hackett has expressed strong opposition to illegal immigration and won the endorsement of anti-immigration groups. Two local polls show him with a substantial lead in this long-time Republican district.
Florida 21: Polls are split between Republican Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Democrat Raul Martinez in this tight, nasty race. We are expecting a new generation of Cubans and voters from Nicaragua, Colombia and Venezuela to make this close in a district that has been dominated by conservative Cubans.
Florida 25: Lincoln’s little brother Mario Diaz-Balart is slightly ahead of Democrat Joe Garcia, though Real Clear Politics calls the race a toss-up. The dynamic is similar to that of Florida’s 21st.
Virginia 11: Keith Fimian (R) and Gerry Connolly (D) vie to replace popular moderate Republican Rep. Tom Davis. The Northern Virginia district has been trending blue in recent years, thanks in part to large populations of Asian and Latino immigrants.

Quick Hit: News 21 Video on Mother Jones

Amy Crawford — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 01:57:06 +0000

As Rep. Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart campaigns come down to the wire in the Miami area, all eyes are on the non-Cuban Latinos who might swing the races to the Democrats for the first time in decades.

Mother Jones has posted a video that was part of the Elizabeth Méndez Berry and Don Duncan’s News 21 project. While one skeptical commenter says, “Being a Diaz-Balart in Miami is like being a Kennedy in Boston,” polls are showing the challengers might have a chance. In Florida’s 25th, Mario is up a few points over Democrat Joe Garcia. In the 21st, polls show a toss-up with challenger Raul Martinez.

This Time, South Florida Elections Are Not About Cuba

Amy Crawford — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 22:25:40 +0000

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAC9ucoO-kQ

As News 21 discovered last summer, the long-running Diaz-Balart dynasty seems to be coming to an end. Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart, both conservative Republicans, have held their South Florida Congressional seats for years, largely on the basis of their tough-on-Cuba stance.

The brothers are losing their appeal, however, as their constituencies come to be dominated by young Cubans and non-Cuban Latinos. These voters care far less about Cuba and Fidel Castro than they do about the economy, and they are drawn to the Diaz-Balart brothers’ Democratic challengers. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, another GOP incumbent, is also in trouble as Cuba fades from even Cuban voters’ minds. Watch the video above for the perspective of one Colombian-American.

Weekly Immigration News Round-Up 10/25

Amy Crawford — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 01:02:19 +0000

A new Pew Hispanic Center report says that Latinos made up half of the nation’s growth since 2000. By 2007, they accounted for 15 percent of the population.
USA Today takes a look at immigration in Arizona, where the issue is very much on the political radar.
The collapse of the housing industry has led to less work for day laborers, many of whom are illegal immigrants. It used to be a good living, but many laborers are finding they can no longer send money home to their families.
ICE picked up 29 alleged illegal immigrant gang members in Northern California. The crackdown follows controversy over San Francisco’s “sanctuary” law, which may have enabled the murder of a family by an MS-13 member.
Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) and his opponent Joe Garcia have resorted to trading barbs through ridiculous YouTube videos. News 21 found this race hinges on whether a new generation of Latinos will overrule older Cubans in South Florida.

Real Clear Politics Lists Top House Races

Amy Crawford — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 02:14:29 +0000

Several of the congressional races News 21 has been following are on a new ranked list of 50 House races to watch. In some of these districts, immigration is an issue; in others, immigrant voters may tilt the election.

6. Texas 22 – Republican Pete Olson challenges Democrat Nick Lampson, who won this very Republican district in 2006 because of backlash against former Rep. Tom Delay. Perhaps Lampson’s last hope, a large South Asian population might save him.
11. Pennsylvania 11 – Democrat Paul Kanjorski faces Mayor Lou Barletta, whom Real Clear Politics calls a “near-celebrity.” Barletta earned that status by crusading against illegal immigration.
16. Pennsylvania 10 – Democratic incumbent Chris Carney defeated his Republican predecessor, Don Sherwood, in 2006 after Sherwood’s mistress accused him of trying to choke her. Carney is facing a stronger opponent this time in Chris Hackett. Tapping into regional support for Lou Barletta, Hackett has expressed strong opposition to illegal immigration.
36. Florida 25 – Republican Mario Diaz-Balart is in the first challenging race of his House career, against Democrat Joe Garcia. The race hinges on whether a new, more liberal generation of Cubans and voters from Nicaragua, Colombia and Venezuela outvote traditionally conservative older Cubans.
49. Florida 21 – Mario’s brother Lincoln Diaz-Balart is attempting to fend off Democrat Raul Martinez in a tight, nasty race. His situation is similar to Mario’s, though his district is more Republican.

Check out the list yourselves—are there any races that I missed? (Part 1, Part 2)

Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart in Danger of Losing His Seat, New Poll Shows

Amy Crawford — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 00:16:26 +0000

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmPBSkqrPBc

Lincoln Diaz-Balart has reached out to Latino voters on behalf of John McCain. Polls show he has his own problems to worry about.

A new poll commissioned by Roll Call shows Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-Fla. 21) losing 46 to 48 percent against Democratic challenger Raul Martinez, in what’s shaping up to be an era-changing race.

Diaz-Balart is already receiving life-support from the national Republican party, which hopes to hold on to a seat that has been in Republican hands for 15 years. Presidential candidate John McCain appointed the Congressman to speak for him on issues involving Cuba. Diaz-Balart was given the role of attack dog during the Democratic National Convention last week, and he will speak for the Republicans in St. Paul this week. The Republicans have bought over $1 million in ads for this district, along with $900,000 in support of Lincoln’s younger brother Mario, who holds Florida’s 25th district and faces a strong challenge himself.

Diaz-Balart, a Cuban refugee, has long taken a hard-line stance against Cuba, and he supports continuing the embargo. Martinez, who was also born in Cuba, would continue the embargo, but would allow Americans to visit relatives in Cuba and send them remittances.

Many pundits attribute Martinez’s rise in the polls to younger voters and non-Cuban Latinos, who tend to be more Democratic than older Cubans. News 21 reporters Elizabeth Mendez-Berry and Don Duncan looked at the effects of this demographic shift in depth earlier this summer.