In the end, Barack Obama didn’t need the 19 electoral votes represented by Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, three states won by George W. Bush in 2004, to make it to the White House. But he won all three, two with double-digit margins. Early analysis of the blue shift in western states credits a range of factors including high support among first time voters, the energy of volunteers as part of the Obama political machine, Latino voters, and changing priorities in the suburbs.

The blue tide that swept across the west, aided by Obama’s aggressive push in the states but perhaps equally fueled by anti-Republican sentiment nationwide, also saw Democrats pick up two Senate and four House seats. A quick look at each states results.

Sen. Barack Obama is reflected in a boy’s sunglasses as he speaks in Pueblo, Colorado on November 1 (Reuters)

Colorado

Obama became the first Democratic presidential nominee to win a majority of Colorado’s votes since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. (Bill Clinton won a plurality in 1992, carrying the state when third party candidate Ross Perot siphoned off Republican votes.) The Illinois senator won 54 percent of the vote to John McCain’s 46 percent, receiving 170,000 more votes than his rival per the count as of this writing.

Obama beat McCain with women 56 to 41 percent, a reversal of 2004 when Bush beat John Kerry 51 to 41 percent, according to state exit polls (2004, 2008.) McCain still carried the state among men (50 to 49 percent), though with a tighter margin than Bush in 2004 (53 to 45 percent.) Obama also improved among white Evangelicals, winning 23 percent of their vote compared to Kerry’s 13 percent in 2004. With Obama improving with most groups, it’s somewhat curious that the exit poll showed support among Latinos actually dipped for the Democratic nominee to 61 percent. In 2004, Kerry carried 68 percent of Latino voters in the state.

On issues, Obama did best with people most concerned about health care, winning 78 percent of their vote, whole McCain did best with people most concerned with terrorism, claiming 88 percent of their vote.  Obama won more Republicans (13 percent) than McCain did Democrats (7 percent); Independents went for Obama over McCain 54 to 44 percent.

The estimated 2.2 million ballots cast in the state is expected to break a record, though some expected the turnout percentage to be higher.

For the state’s open Senate seat, Democrat Mark Udall was able to shrug off the “Boulder liberal” label and beat Republican challenger Bob Schaffer. Udall will succeed retiring Sen. Wayne Allard, a Republican in office since 1997, taking over a seat that’s been in Republican hands since 1979. Junior Senator-elect Udall will join Democratic Sen. Ken Salazar who replaced Democrat-turned-Republican Ben Nighthorse Campbell in 2005.

The only House seat to switch hands occurred in Colorado’s 4th congressional district. Three-term Rep. Marilyn Musgrave, a far right conservative who called banning gay marriage “the most important issue that we face today” and once received an endorsement from the KKK, saw her margins of victory slip at each election and had the distinction of having the lowest winning percentage (46 percent) of any member of congress in the 2006 election. With polls in her favor leading up to the election, challenger BetseyMarkey expected to win but was surprised at her 11-point margin (56 to 44) given the district is still a conservative stronghold. Ever the gracious loser, Musgrave hadn’t called Markey to concede as of Wednesday afternoon.

Obama supporters celebrate at the Rio Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada (Getty Images)

Nevada

Obama’s 12-point victory in Nevada is really a tale of two counties: Washoe and Clark.

As expected, Obama crushed McCain in Clark County, the population center of the state which accounted for 69 percent of all registered voters in the state on election day. Obama won 58 percent of Clark County votes to McCain’s 40 percent which amounted to a 122,803 vote advantage for the Democrat, per figures available as of this writing. Statewide, Obama won by 120,521 votes, finishing with 55 percent of the vote to McCain’s 43 percent.

The margin in Clark County alone might have been enough to carry the state, but a dramatic shift in second most populous Washoe County made the Obama victory that much easier. Obama won Washoe, which claimed 1,200 more registered Democrats than Republicans, 55 to 43 percent. In 2004, when registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by more than 17,000, Bush carried the county 51 to 47 percent with a margin of victory of 6,700 votes. In the less populous rural counties, Obama lost by as much as 4-to-1.

Exit polls show Obama won a majority of both men and women voters (51 percent and 59 percent, respectively) and all age groups except 65 and older.Obama’s support went down with age, from 70 percent among 18-24 year olds to 52 percent of voters 50-64 years old. McCain won 55 percent of voters over 65. In 2004, exit poll data showed Bush with an advantage among men (54 percent to Kerry’s 44 percent) and all age groups over 30. Kerry won more women, 52 to 47 percent.

African-Americans made up 10 percent of the 2008 vote and went for Obama 94 percent to McCain’s 5 percent. Latinos, comprising 15 percent of voters, went for Obama over McCain 76 to 22 percent. McCain won 53 percent of white voters toObama’s 45 percent. Obama improved on Kerry’s 2004 performance among all races; Kerry had 86 percent of the African-American vote, 60 percent of the Latino vote, and 43 percent of the white vote.

Similar to results in Colorado, Obama did best (74 percent) with people who viewed health care as the most important issue and McCain did best (89 percent) with people who thought terrorism was most important.

Obama managed to sway 11 percent of Republicans, while McCain got 6 percent of Democrats to cross over. Independents broke 54 to 41 for Obama.

Two of three Nevada’s House members held on to their seats — Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) and Rep. Dean Heller (R). State Sen. Dina Titus beat three-term incumbent Rep. Jon Porter in the 3rd district which the Republican congressman has represented since it was created following the 2000 census. Titus, who lost the 2006 gubernatorial race to Republican Jim Gibbons, beat Porter 47 to 42 percent, with third party candidates collecting the rest of the votes. Early on election night, Heller told the Las Vegas Review-Journal he saw himself as the underdog. “This district went from dead even in registration to 40,000 more registered Democrats voters this time,” he said. Titus credited Obama’s field operation for helping her get elected.

Sen. John McCain urges on his supporters in Albuquerque, New Mexico on election day (Getty Images)

New Mexico

Of the western swing states, New Mexico is probably the most swingy. New Mexico voters picked Reagan twice, George H.W. Bush in 1988 but Clinton in 1992 and 1996, Gore in 2000 (by a razor-thin 366 votes) but Bush in 2004 (by just shy of 6,000 votes.) This year, the state appeared tired of such close races, giving Obama a resounding 15 point, 120,000 vote win.

But perhaps most interesting about New Mexico this season is it turned — as predicted by some — true blue. The congressional seats held by Republicans — one in the Senate and two in the House — fell to the Democrats marking the “first time in 40 years in which Democrats completely controlled the state’s congressional delegation,” predicted by some — true blue. The congressional seats held by Republicans — one in the Senate and two in the House — fell to the Democrats marking the “first time in 40 years in which Democrats completely controlled the state’s congressional delegation,” wrote Steve Terrell in The New Mexican.

When Republican Sen. Pete Domenici announced his retirement, all three current House members entered the race to replace him, leaving all three seats open races. Rep. Heather Wilson lost in the Republican primary to Rep. Steve Pearce, who in turn lost to Rep. Tom Udall (cousin to Colorado’s Senator-elect Mark Udall) on Tuesday. Udall enjoyed an even wider margin of victory than the top of the ticket, beating Pearce 61 to 39 percent. Obama beat McCain 57 to 42 percent.

In the 1st and 2nd congressional districts, both currently held by Republicans, the Democratic nominees enjoyed identical 55 to 45 percent victories. The more liberal leaning 3rd district was not expected to be a close race, and the Democrat won handily 57 to 30 percent.

Obama won 54 percent of the male vote and 59 percent of the female vote; he also carried every age group, according to state exit polls. New Mexico has the highest percentage of Latinos of any state, and they comprised 41 percent of the electorate on Tuesday voting for Obama 69 percent of the time. In 2004, Kerry won 56 percent of the Latino vote.

Among white voters, the results were the same as in 2004; whites backed Bush over Kerry 56 to 43 percent and McCain over Obama 56 to 42 percent. Most voters (55 percent) said that the economy was the most important issue, and of those 60 percent voted for Obama. McCain did best with voters most concerned about terrorism, earning 84 percent of their vote, while Obama did best with people most concerned about Iraq, winning 70 percent of their vote.

More Democrats went for McCain (9 percent) than Republicans went for Obama (8 percent), and both earned 91 percent of their party’s votes; Independents backed Obama over McCain 56 to 41 percent.

The economic crisis and recent spate of immigration raids have dampened Latino voters’ morale, according to a new Pew Hispanic Center study.

Half of the 2,000 Latinos surveyed said that their situation was worse today than a year ago. Sixty-three percent of Latinos who had immigrated to the U.S. felt that way. In 2007, a similar survey found only a third of Latinos and 43 percent of Latino immigrants felt that things were worse than in 2006.

The report suggests that unemployment and increasing hostility to immigration are causing Latinos’ pessimism, noting that 1 in 7 said they had had trouble finding or keeping a job because they were Latino. More than half say they worry they or someone close to them will be deported.

This pessimism is already translating to support for Democratic Presidential candidate Barack Obama, whom general polls show Americans trust more when it comes to economic issues. Though Sen. John McCain championed immigration reform in the Senate, Latinos gained an unfavorable impression of the Republican party after conservatives killed the bill and McCain backed away from it.

Read the full report here. (PDF)

(AP Photo)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5QVDMdW4rw

As the Democratic National Convention continues in Denver, Democrats are working on a strategy to capture the votes of Latinos, one of this year’s most important electoral demographics. Simon Rosenberg, founder of the New Democrat Network (NDN), noted in a 2007 op-ed that

the American people have changed a great deal. In recent decades, America has become increasingly suburban and exurban, Southern and Western, Hispanic and Asian, immigrant and Spanish-speaking….

With these changes in mind, Rosenberg and other party insiders are not underestimating the importance of the Latino vote in November, not only in the presidential race, but also in Congressional races (see this News 21 report on Latino voters in South Florida). On Monday of this week, the NDN hosted a forum called “Immigration Reform and the Next Administration.” At the forum were Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), who has worked for pro-immigrant legislation, Marco Lopez, a senior advisor to Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano on immigration issues, and Janet Murguia, president of the National Council of La Raza, among others.

While Republican nominee John McCain is telling Spanish radio listeners that he stood up for immigration reform, Democrats say that the GOP failed to provide comprehensive immigration reform, and they point to widespread anti-immigration fervor in the GOP’s conservative wing. By promising immigrant-friendly immigration reform, the Dems hops to solidify their hold on the Latino vote.

Newly-naturalized citizens register to vote in Denver

A key factor in a Barack Obama victory in Colorado, New Mexico, or Nevada will be his ability to turn out Latino voters.

One segment of the Latino population specifically targeted in registration drives is newly naturalized citizens. Grace Lopez Ramirez, director of the Colorado chapter of Mi Familia Vota, said new citizens are excited about voting for the first time and serve as effective and enthusiastic ambassadors to the broader Latino community. At a naturalization ceremony in May — the largest-ever in Denver’s history — Ramirez’s group registered 500 people in one hour. Though the number of newly naturalized citizens in any given year may seem small, taken across an election cycle it adds up: more than 27,000 people have become citizens in Colorado since the 2004 election.

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“Are we throwing away our votes if we vote for Nader? No more than we have in voting for the last 43 presidents.”

Armas cites a December 2007 poll by the paper’s publisher, Impremedia, that shows a record 15 percent of Latinos in five key states are registered as independent or members of a third party. The poll also shows 58 percent are registered as Democrats, and 20 percent as Republicans, and that 37 percent said they have no preference for a candidate from either of the two main parties.

Interestingly, Nader’s campaign website does not list immigration as one of the “12 Issues that Matter for 2008.” Back in 2000 as a Green Party candidate, he outlined U.S. trade policy and support for democratic movements in Latin America as key to shaping immigration trends.

Nader’s relevance as a candidate in this election may be nil, as few of his former allies take him seriously anymore and he has little backing. But, as Armas suggests, Latinos may be able to leverage his views on immigration.

“The Democrats might sound dismissive, but what they really are is terrified. It is here that we Latinos have a card to play.”

Can Latino support, or the threat of Latino support, for a third-party candidate change the terms of the national debate on immigration?

On Sunday February 3, Cynthia Dizikes and Carmel Wroth visited three Latino churches and interviewed voters about their perspectives on the presidential candidates. What we found was a range of viewpoints that cannot easily be generalized. Though the primary results will no doubt be tallied and pondered over by campaign strategists, we found that there is no such thing as “the Latino vote.”