Once upon a time — say, way back in 2004 — overwhelming Republican Party support in rural Nevada offset the Democratic advantage in densely-populated Clark County. Swing county Washoe, Nevada’s second most populous, often determined who won statewide campaigns. John Kerry won Clark County in 2004 by a less-than comfortable 5-point margin while George W. Bush won every other county in the state — Washoe by 4 points and rural counties by up to a 4-to-1 margin.

Fast-forward to 2008. Barack Obama lost the rural counties (but had a better showing than Kerry), improved his margins in Clark County, and flipped Washoe. Postgame analysis is far from over in the state, but one early question is emerging: Do the rurals still matter?

Obama fought hard for the rural counties, visiting Elko three times and drawing out the few liberals hiding in the shadows. John McCain, who finished third in Nevada’s Republican caucuses, wasn’t helped by lukewarm support among conservatives in the state, many of whom were more anti-Obama than pro-McCain. Most expected the rurals to play their usual role in helping determine who would win the state’s five electoral votes, but the Las Vegas Sun reports that “even if Obama had not gotten a single vote in the 14 counties outside Clark, Washoe and Carson City, and even if all of his votes had gone to McCain instead, he still would have carried the state.”

“I said in 2004, this may very well be the last statewide election where rurals can leverage the vote,” Elko Republican Party Chairman Reece Keener told the Sun. “We just don’t have the pull that we once did.”

In a close election, every state and every voter matters. Had Kerry won Nevada, he would have won the White House. Given Obama’s electoral vote drubbing of McCain, the Democrat didn’t need to win Nevada (or Colorado or New Mexico.) Similarly, his 12-point victory in Nevada meant he didn’t need the rurals any more than he needed any other specific subset of voters.

But by 2012 (or even the 2010 midterm elections, when the governorship, one Senate seat, and all the House seats are up for grabs), who’s to say Nevada Latinos will vote as overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates or at all? Maybe the slim voter registration edge enjoyed by Democrats in Washoe will reverse itself or turnout in Clark County will fall from the heights seen this year.

If the blue wave continue across Nevada, the rurals likely won’t matter in statewide campaigns as witnessed this year. But on a local level, the gun-loving ranchers and miners in rural communities will continue to dominate and could resist shifting blue themselves. It could all depend on how the new Democrats in power choose to govern.

“When we start to see some of the new programs coming out of Washington, it’s going to really galvanize things for us,” Keener said in the Sun.

Or maybe the blue waters will wash across the rural counties, too.

“When people see we are not radicals who shut down mines and take away their guns and we go out and fix the economy, things switch,” Lance Whitney, chairman of Elko’s Democratic Party told the Sun. “People’s minds switch.”

In the end, Barack Obama didn’t need the 19 electoral votes represented by Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, three states won by George W. Bush in 2004, to make it to the White House. But he won all three, two with double-digit margins. Early analysis of the blue shift in western states credits a range of factors including high support among first time voters, the energy of volunteers as part of the Obama political machine, Latino voters, and changing priorities in the suburbs.

The blue tide that swept across the west, aided by Obama’s aggressive push in the states but perhaps equally fueled by anti-Republican sentiment nationwide, also saw Democrats pick up two Senate and four House seats. A quick look at each states results.

Sen. Barack Obama is reflected in a boy’s sunglasses as he speaks in Pueblo, Colorado on November 1 (Reuters)

Colorado

Obama became the first Democratic presidential nominee to win a majority of Colorado’s votes since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. (Bill Clinton won a plurality in 1992, carrying the state when third party candidate Ross Perot siphoned off Republican votes.) The Illinois senator won 54 percent of the vote to John McCain’s 46 percent, receiving 170,000 more votes than his rival per the count as of this writing.

Obama beat McCain with women 56 to 41 percent, a reversal of 2004 when Bush beat John Kerry 51 to 41 percent, according to state exit polls (2004, 2008.) McCain still carried the state among men (50 to 49 percent), though with a tighter margin than Bush in 2004 (53 to 45 percent.) Obama also improved among white Evangelicals, winning 23 percent of their vote compared to Kerry’s 13 percent in 2004. With Obama improving with most groups, it’s somewhat curious that the exit poll showed support among Latinos actually dipped for the Democratic nominee to 61 percent. In 2004, Kerry carried 68 percent of Latino voters in the state.

On issues, Obama did best with people most concerned about health care, winning 78 percent of their vote, whole McCain did best with people most concerned with terrorism, claiming 88 percent of their vote.  Obama won more Republicans (13 percent) than McCain did Democrats (7 percent); Independents went for Obama over McCain 54 to 44 percent.

The estimated 2.2 million ballots cast in the state is expected to break a record, though some expected the turnout percentage to be higher.

For the state’s open Senate seat, Democrat Mark Udall was able to shrug off the “Boulder liberal” label and beat Republican challenger Bob Schaffer. Udall will succeed retiring Sen. Wayne Allard, a Republican in office since 1997, taking over a seat that’s been in Republican hands since 1979. Junior Senator-elect Udall will join Democratic Sen. Ken Salazar who replaced Democrat-turned-Republican Ben Nighthorse Campbell in 2005.

The only House seat to switch hands occurred in Colorado’s 4th congressional district. Three-term Rep. Marilyn Musgrave, a far right conservative who called banning gay marriage “the most important issue that we face today” and once received an endorsement from the KKK, saw her margins of victory slip at each election and had the distinction of having the lowest winning percentage (46 percent) of any member of congress in the 2006 election. With polls in her favor leading up to the election, challenger BetseyMarkey expected to win but was surprised at her 11-point margin (56 to 44) given the district is still a conservative stronghold. Ever the gracious loser, Musgrave hadn’t called Markey to concede as of Wednesday afternoon.

Obama supporters celebrate at the Rio Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada (Getty Images)

Nevada

Obama’s 12-point victory in Nevada is really a tale of two counties: Washoe and Clark.

As expected, Obama crushed McCain in Clark County, the population center of the state which accounted for 69 percent of all registered voters in the state on election day. Obama won 58 percent of Clark County votes to McCain’s 40 percent which amounted to a 122,803 vote advantage for the Democrat, per figures available as of this writing. Statewide, Obama won by 120,521 votes, finishing with 55 percent of the vote to McCain’s 43 percent.

The margin in Clark County alone might have been enough to carry the state, but a dramatic shift in second most populous Washoe County made the Obama victory that much easier. Obama won Washoe, which claimed 1,200 more registered Democrats than Republicans, 55 to 43 percent. In 2004, when registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by more than 17,000, Bush carried the county 51 to 47 percent with a margin of victory of 6,700 votes. In the less populous rural counties, Obama lost by as much as 4-to-1.

Exit polls show Obama won a majority of both men and women voters (51 percent and 59 percent, respectively) and all age groups except 65 and older.Obama’s support went down with age, from 70 percent among 18-24 year olds to 52 percent of voters 50-64 years old. McCain won 55 percent of voters over 65. In 2004, exit poll data showed Bush with an advantage among men (54 percent to Kerry’s 44 percent) and all age groups over 30. Kerry won more women, 52 to 47 percent.

African-Americans made up 10 percent of the 2008 vote and went for Obama 94 percent to McCain’s 5 percent. Latinos, comprising 15 percent of voters, went for Obama over McCain 76 to 22 percent. McCain won 53 percent of white voters toObama’s 45 percent. Obama improved on Kerry’s 2004 performance among all races; Kerry had 86 percent of the African-American vote, 60 percent of the Latino vote, and 43 percent of the white vote.

Similar to results in Colorado, Obama did best (74 percent) with people who viewed health care as the most important issue and McCain did best (89 percent) with people who thought terrorism was most important.

Obama managed to sway 11 percent of Republicans, while McCain got 6 percent of Democrats to cross over. Independents broke 54 to 41 for Obama.

Two of three Nevada’s House members held on to their seats — Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) and Rep. Dean Heller (R). State Sen. Dina Titus beat three-term incumbent Rep. Jon Porter in the 3rd district which the Republican congressman has represented since it was created following the 2000 census. Titus, who lost the 2006 gubernatorial race to Republican Jim Gibbons, beat Porter 47 to 42 percent, with third party candidates collecting the rest of the votes. Early on election night, Heller told the Las Vegas Review-Journal he saw himself as the underdog. “This district went from dead even in registration to 40,000 more registered Democrats voters this time,” he said. Titus credited Obama’s field operation for helping her get elected.

Sen. John McCain urges on his supporters in Albuquerque, New Mexico on election day (Getty Images)

New Mexico

Of the western swing states, New Mexico is probably the most swingy. New Mexico voters picked Reagan twice, George H.W. Bush in 1988 but Clinton in 1992 and 1996, Gore in 2000 (by a razor-thin 366 votes) but Bush in 2004 (by just shy of 6,000 votes.) This year, the state appeared tired of such close races, giving Obama a resounding 15 point, 120,000 vote win.

But perhaps most interesting about New Mexico this season is it turned — as predicted by some — true blue. The congressional seats held by Republicans — one in the Senate and two in the House — fell to the Democrats marking the “first time in 40 years in which Democrats completely controlled the state’s congressional delegation,” predicted by some — true blue. The congressional seats held by Republicans — one in the Senate and two in the House — fell to the Democrats marking the “first time in 40 years in which Democrats completely controlled the state’s congressional delegation,” wrote Steve Terrell in The New Mexican.

When Republican Sen. Pete Domenici announced his retirement, all three current House members entered the race to replace him, leaving all three seats open races. Rep. Heather Wilson lost in the Republican primary to Rep. Steve Pearce, who in turn lost to Rep. Tom Udall (cousin to Colorado’s Senator-elect Mark Udall) on Tuesday. Udall enjoyed an even wider margin of victory than the top of the ticket, beating Pearce 61 to 39 percent. Obama beat McCain 57 to 42 percent.

In the 1st and 2nd congressional districts, both currently held by Republicans, the Democratic nominees enjoyed identical 55 to 45 percent victories. The more liberal leaning 3rd district was not expected to be a close race, and the Democrat won handily 57 to 30 percent.

Obama won 54 percent of the male vote and 59 percent of the female vote; he also carried every age group, according to state exit polls. New Mexico has the highest percentage of Latinos of any state, and they comprised 41 percent of the electorate on Tuesday voting for Obama 69 percent of the time. In 2004, Kerry won 56 percent of the Latino vote.

Among white voters, the results were the same as in 2004; whites backed Bush over Kerry 56 to 43 percent and McCain over Obama 56 to 42 percent. Most voters (55 percent) said that the economy was the most important issue, and of those 60 percent voted for Obama. McCain did best with voters most concerned about terrorism, earning 84 percent of their vote, while Obama did best with people most concerned about Iraq, winning 70 percent of their vote.

More Democrats went for McCain (9 percent) than Republicans went for Obama (8 percent), and both earned 91 percent of their party’s votes; Independents backed Obama over McCain 56 to 41 percent.

Colorado

“well over 100,000“: record-breaking number of supporters who came out to hear Barack Obama speak at the foot of the capitol in Denver on Sunday

2.5 miles: length of the line to get into an Obama rally in Fort Collins minutes before it was scheduled to begin Sunday afternoon; 45,000 were estimated to have made it in

60,305: registered Democrats in Larimer County, which includes Fort Collins; the county has 74,466 registered Republicans and 74,645 unaffiliated voters

4,000: size of the “raucous” crowd John McCain drew in Denver on Friday; 6,000-8,000 turned out to greet the Republican candidate in Durango later that day

Sen. John McCain’s more intimate rally in Denver on Friday (AP)

1,051,643 — 1,063,347 — 1,069,294: the number of registered Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated voters, respectively, statewide

698,000: the number of Coloradans who voted at early-polling locations or by mail as of Sunday, representing 22 percent of the state’s 3.2 million registered voters

9: electoral votes represented by the Centennial State

Nevada and New Mexico after the jump

Sen. Barack Obama takes the stage in Las Vegas on Saturday (Getty Images)

Nevada

11,000 and 18,000: supporters who turned out to hear Barack Obama in Reno and Las Vegas, respectively, on Saturday

186,849: people who have already cast ballots in Clark County early voting as of Saturday; 103,719 were registered Democrats compared to 52,850 registered Republicans

4.2 points: Obama’s lead among Nevada voters, according to the latest state poll results released today by Zogby International; 44.0 percent of respondents support John McCain, 48.2 percent support Obama, and 7.8 percent were undecided

7 points: McCain’s edge in a poll conducted in August, his largest-ever advantage in the state in a single poll; most polls had the Republican ahead from mid-August through late September

79: days since McCain’s last trip to Nevada; Gov. Sarah Palin made stops in Reno and Henderson last week

5: electoral votes represented by the Silver State

Sen. John McCain shakes hands in Albuquerque on Saturday (Getty Images)

New Mexico

fewer than 1,500 and more than 45,000: respective sizes of McCain’s and Obama’s Saturday rallies in Albuquerque

4 points: estimated lead McCain would have if Latino voters were excluded, according to figures compiled by the William C. Velasquez Institute; including Latinos, who make up one-third of New Mexico voters, Obama has an 8 point advantage in the state

5,988: number of more votes George W. Bush won in the state than John Kerry in 2004, clinching his reelection; Al Gore carried the state in 2000 by 366 votes

593,761 — 375,420 — 182,716: number of registered Democrats, Republicans, and voters who decline to state their affiliation as of October 23

5: electoral votes up for grabs in the Land of Enchantment

The National Republican Senatorial Committee confirmed today it was pulling it’s support from the Colorado race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Wayne Allard. Rumors of the pullout began circulating last week, but subsided after NRSC chairman Sen. John Ensign said, “We’re going to stay there up until the end,” at a National Press Club breakfast Tuesday and the committee released a new ad attacking “Boulder Liberal” Mark Udall on Thursday.

New ad released before NRSC pulled support

Taking Ensign at his word, apparently this once-competitive race is over, with Udall widening his lead over Republican challenger Bob Schaffer to 8 points in the latest average of polls.

The NRSC will stop running ads next week, and their pullout follows that of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee earlier this week. But while theDSCC move was seen as a sign of confidence that their candidate has a comfortable lead and doesn’t need their help in the last few days of the campaign, the NRSC pullout smells of desperation and not wanting to throw good money after bad.

“The NRSC found out the hard way that not only have their ads backfired and turned off voters, but that Coloradans are standing with Mark Udall,” Udall spokeswoman Tara Trujillo told the Denver Post.

Schaffer campaign manager Dick Wadhams told the Post he thinks the race is still winnable, but didn’t sound happy about the NRSC move. “That’s what they decided and we’ll live with it,” he said.

Democrats are gunning for a filibuster-proof 60-seats in the Senate, and Colorado and New Mexico (where Tom Udall, Mark’s cousin, has a comfortable lead) look like “done deals,” said Washington Post political blogger Chris Cillizza.

Rumors that John McCain was also giving up Colorado were denied by the campaign earlier this week, and the candidate was quickly dispatched to the Mile High State to rally his supporters.

Looking at the current political landscape and demographic shifts, Richard Martin writes in New West that Colorado is turning blue, not purple. “The West is likely to be a bellwether for a dramatic shift toward Democratic principles and candidates, with Colorado on the leading edge. If that happens, it’s possible the Democrats could solidify their ascendancy for a generation.”

Stop Calling Me

Living in California, I’m unlikely to feel the pain of swing staters anytime soon. The calls, the knocks on the door, the endless ads. With early voting underway in Nevada and other swing states, Las Vegas Sun reporter David McGrath Schwartz writes that voters “see the voting booth as an escape hatch from the ever-present election.”

Though the Sun article speaks broadly to the political climate in Nevada, while I was reporting throughout the state last week, it’s the Obama campaign that appears to be the more energized — and thus the bigger nuisance. But it’s unclear if or when the line is crossed that turns off supporters or keeps them from the polls.

In Reno, a young woman registering to vote told me she was annoyed with the Obama campaign’s persistence — “they come [to my door], and they call, and they email,” she said — but she still planned on casting her vote for the Democrat.

In rural Elko, an Obama volunteer and supporter whose dedication extends to housing an out-of-state campaign staffer heading up the local office told me she started taking her orders to make more calls with a grain of salt. “It’s getting to be too much,” she said, noting that some people in her small community would be turned off afterreceiving a third, fourth, or fifth call. And with people from out of state calling Nevada voters, she said her first call was often times the person on the other end’s third contact.

Not one person I spoke to — Democrat, Republican, or undecided — said they were contacted too much by the McCain camp, and many said they hadn’t been contacted by Republicans at all.

Nevada has a “Please Do Not Call” list (since political speech is protected, only campaigns that volunteer to abide by the list will stop calling) and Nevadans can apply for confidential voter status to remove their address and phone number from their voter file.

To stop the hard sell, some early voters are putting up signs to let canvassers know they can keep walking, and Obama spokeswoman Kirsten Searer tells the Sun, “we tease voters sometimes that one way to stop getting phone calls and mail is to vote.”

Candidates Hit Battle For The West States This Weekend

With Obama looking to solidify his leads in Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, and McCain looking to staunch the bleeding and eke out a win in at least one of the states, both candidates are headed west.

Obama will hit Reno Saturday morning, then Las Vegas, and end his day in Albequerque. On Sunday, the Democratic candidate returns to Denver then heads further north to Fort Collins.

John McCain, flanked by former Broncos Quarterback John Elway, at a rally in Denver Friday (Getty Images)

Friday is Colorado day for McCain. The Republican candidate spoke in Denver this morning, is en route to Colorado Springs as I type, and will end the day with a rally in Durango. The candidate will cross paths with his rival in Albuquerque on Saturday, with an additional stop in Las Cruces. (Curiously missing from his regional itinerary: Nevada. McCain hasn’t shown his face in the state since early August, though Gov. Sarah Palin has made several appearances. Is he ceding the state, where he came in third in the Republican caucuses behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul?)

Reno to Elko

From the Siena Hotel Spa Casino in Reno to the Red Lion Hotel & Casino in Elko.

Distance: 291 miles
Time: 3 hours, 43 mins
Images shot: 1,084

Elko to Las Vegas after the jump

Elko to Las Vegas

From the Red Lion Hotel & Casino in Elko to the Grandview at Las Vegas.

Distance: 480 miles
Time: 7 hours, 5 mins
Images shot: 783
Of note: at 15 secs, stopped for road work; 48 secs, stopped for speeding ticket

*Images shot with Canon PowerShot A710 running CHDK hack, compiled into video using QuickTime Pro.

Two new polls have Sen. Barack Obama ahead of Sen. John McCain in Nevada. An InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position survey of 437 likely voters has Obama up 48 to 47 percent. A CNN/Time Magazine poll conducted by Opinion Research Corp. has the Illinois senator up 51 to 47 percent among likely voters, and 54 to 43 percent among all registered voters.

With young voters and people who didn’t make it to the polls in 2004 overwhelmingly supporting Obama, it’s not unreasonable to assume that likely voter polls are underestimating Obama’s support. Among the criteria used to determine voting likelihood is past voter behavior. Factor in people missed by pollsters entirely — like cell-phone only users — and the race might be less of a nail biter than it appears.

“The national polls have moved in Obama’s direction since the beginning of the financial crisis,” Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, told the Las Vegas Review Journal. “The state polls are following the national polls.”

New figures show Democrats hold just shy of 94,000 voter registration advantage over Republican; in Washoe County, Republicans’ registration lead has fallen to just 1,997. More than 40,000 Washoe County voters are registered non-partisan.

“I can say public polls show 80 percent of people in this country feel things are headed in the wrong direction. Independent voters see a clear choice in this election,” Jeff Giertz, an Obama campaign spokesman, told the Reno Gazette-Journal.

But Heidi Smith, county Republican Party chairwoman, told the Gazette-Journal that many independents are Republicans who just don’t want to declare their party. Interesting theory.

Obama’s ground game helped spur the recent turnaround in the polls and sparked the surge in new registrations. “What you see in Nevada is what we’ve been seeing all across the country so far. [The Obama] campaign has an overwhelming number of volunteers and organizers on the ground,” Sean Quinn, a reporter with the political website fivethirtyeight.com, told the Christian Science Monitor.

CSM reporter Ben Arnoldy followed around both campaigns in Las Vegas. Arnoldy noted that in the office, McCain phonebankers used an automated system that allowed them to move through their lists at least twice as fast. “The real ace in the hole from the McCain camp’s perspective is their high-tech, streamlined approach,”Arnoldy wrote.

Unfortunately, their perceived advantage didn’t always translate to the street, leading Arnoldy to conclude that “if the McCain campaign had a database advantage, it wasn’t on display on a recent weekend in Las Vegas. Six out of nearly 40 doors knocked on one McCain canvass turned out to be wrong, while an Obama canvasser just encountered one vacant home.”

Among the Obama volunteers in Nevada are hundreds from solidly-blue California. “More visibility of enthusiasm for Obama is a good thing,” University of California, Santa Cruz, professor of politics Bob Meister told the Santa Cruz Sentinel. But he warns out-of-towners could rub some Nevadans the wrong way.

“I’m not going to be wearing a sign that says I’m from California, but I’ll be telling them why I’ve come to do this,” said retired school teacher and Obama volunteer Dennis Connors in the Sentinel.

Arnoldy also encountered Californians in the Silver State, something local Obama staffers didn’t exactly highlight. He writes:

The presence of out-of-state help was a detail the Obama campaign went to some lengths to mask. A campaign press official — who himself initially refused to divulge he was from California — cornered [Obama volunteer] Mr. James before an interview in an effort to get him to play down his origins. But no one who answered his knocks in Las Vegas seemed bothered by James’s California-ness.

In a personal essay on AlterNet, Patricia McBride writes about why she travelled to Nevada where she knocked on 51 doors in 115 degree heat:

I hadn’t knocked on the door of someone I didn’t know since I sold Girl Scout cookies in the sixth grade… I don’t bother strangers. I don’t particularly like it when strangers knock on my door. I’m essentially friendly, and I’m pretty smart, but the truth is I’m painfully shy and at heart a very private person. Were it not for the fact that I love my child and that I love my country deeply, and I fear what it has become, I’d really be very content to stay home and live as much like a hermit as possible. But that simply isn’t an option this year.

And what about McCain’s California supporters? McCain spokesman Rick Gorka told the Orange County Register they have no plans to bring in volunteers from California now, but they might closer to election day. George Andrews, executive director of the Republican Party of Orange County, said the local GOP chapter was focused on local efforts to deliver a resounding win for McCain in “America’s Most Republican County.” Rather than help their candidate in a state that matters, it looks like they’re going for a consolation booby prize — best McCain margin in a blue state.