A Few Surprises in Immigration-Related Races

Amy Crawford — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 04:07:51 +0000

Here’s a run-down of the races we were watching. In some, the immigration issue played a role—or failed to; in others, immigrant voters’ voices were heard. More details to come later on some of the major stories. (All results from NYTimes.com, unless linked elsewhere.)

Texas 22: Republican Pete Olson beat Democratic incumbent Rep. Nick Lampson, 52% to 45%. Which way did South Asians swing?
Pennsylvania 11: Democratic incumbent Rep. Paul Kanjorski beat Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, 52% to 48% despite polls showing Barletta with a lead throughout the fall. Is immigration no longer an issue for economically struggling Pennsylvanians?
Pennsylvania 10: Democrat Chris Carney beat Republican Chris Hackett, who was expected to benefit from Lou Barletta’s popularity. In the end, the race wasn’t even close—56% to 44%.
Florida 21: Republican Congressman Lincoln Diaz-Balart won handily 58% to 42%, despite predictions that a new generation of Latinos would turn out for his opponent, Democrat Raul Martinez.
Florida 25: Lincoln’s little brother Mario Diaz-Balart beat Democrat Joe Garcia, 53% to 47%.
Virginia 11: Gerry Connolly (D) beat Keith Fimian (R) 53% to 45% in this D.C. suburb. How did Asian and Latino immigrants vote?
North Carolina Senate: Once comfortable Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) got crushed 52% to 44% by Democrat Kay Hagan. This state has attracted large numbers of immigrants since the last election, and it went narrowly to Obama in the presidential race.
Arizona State Senate, District 18: State. Rep. Russell Pearce (R), beat Judah Nativio (D) in this mostly Republican senate district. Pearce, the hardest of immigration hardliners, is positioned to become the next Tom Tancredo.
Arizona Proposition 202 failed, 41% to 59%. This initiative, which would have prohibited anonymous complaints against businesses that employed illegal immigrants, was deemed a trick by anti-immigration activists.
Oregon Ballot Measure 58, to limit ESL classes, failed 45% to 55%.
Missouri Constitutional Amendment 1, to make English the official language, passed overwhelmingly, 86% to 14%.

Races We’re Watching: Part 1

Amy Crawford — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 17:29:38 +0000

Two days before the election, the immigration issue and/or immigrant voters are playing a big role in a handful of Congressional races. Here’s what we’re watching:

Texas 22: Democrat Nick Lampson hopes to fend off a challenge from Republican Pete Olson with the help of South Asian voters. A Zogby poll has the Republican substantially ahead, but without any other polls to back it up, it would be unwise to accept it at face value. Still, this has been a Republican district for a long time.
Pennsylvania 11: Republican Lou Barletta is poised to topple long-time incumbent Paul Kanjorski, who has faced ethics challenges and anti-incumbent feelings in this blue-collar district. Barletta, made famous by his crusade against illegal immigration, is up by a handful of points.
Pennsylvania 10: Democrat Chris Carney is locked in a tight battle with Republican Chris Hackett, who is tapping into regional support for Lou Barletta. Hackett has expressed strong opposition to illegal immigration and won the endorsement of anti-immigration groups. Two local polls show him with a substantial lead in this long-time Republican district.
Florida 21: Polls are split between Republican Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Democrat Raul Martinez in this tight, nasty race. We are expecting a new generation of Cubans and voters from Nicaragua, Colombia and Venezuela to make this close in a district that has been dominated by conservative Cubans.
Florida 25: Lincoln’s little brother Mario Diaz-Balart is slightly ahead of Democrat Joe Garcia, though Real Clear Politics calls the race a toss-up. The dynamic is similar to that of Florida’s 21st.
Virginia 11: Keith Fimian (R) and Gerry Connolly (D) vie to replace popular moderate Republican Rep. Tom Davis. The Northern Virginia district has been trending blue in recent years, thanks in part to large populations of Asian and Latino immigrants.

Reporting from a new generation of journalists. » Keith Fimian

A Few Surprises in Immigration-Related Races

Races We’re Watching: Part 1