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A Few Surprises in Immigration-Related Races

Amy Crawford — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 04:07:51 +0000

Here’s a run-down of the races we were watching. In some, the immigration issue played a role—or failed to; in others, immigrant voters’ voices were heard. More details to come later on some of the major stories. (All results from NYTimes.com, unless linked elsewhere.)

Texas 22: Republican Pete Olson beat Democratic incumbent Rep. Nick Lampson, 52% to 45%. Which way did South Asians swing?
Pennsylvania 11: Democratic incumbent Rep. Paul Kanjorski beat Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, 52% to 48% despite polls showing Barletta with a lead throughout the fall. Is immigration no longer an issue for economically struggling Pennsylvanians?
Pennsylvania 10: Democrat Chris Carney beat Republican Chris Hackett, who was expected to benefit from Lou Barletta’s popularity. In the end, the race wasn’t even close—56% to 44%.
Florida 21: Republican Congressman Lincoln Diaz-Balart won handily 58% to 42%, despite predictions that a new generation of Latinos would turn out for his opponent, Democrat Raul Martinez.
Florida 25: Lincoln’s little brother Mario Diaz-Balart beat Democrat Joe Garcia, 53% to 47%.
Virginia 11: Gerry Connolly (D) beat Keith Fimian (R) 53% to 45% in this D.C. suburb. How did Asian and Latino immigrants vote?
North Carolina Senate: Once comfortable Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) got crushed 52% to 44% by Democrat Kay Hagan. This state has attracted large numbers of immigrants since the last election, and it went narrowly to Obama in the presidential race.
Arizona State Senate, District 18: State. Rep. Russell Pearce (R), beat Judah Nativio (D) in this mostly Republican senate district. Pearce, the hardest of immigration hardliners, is positioned to become the next Tom Tancredo.
Arizona Proposition 202 failed, 41% to 59%. This initiative, which would have prohibited anonymous complaints against businesses that employed illegal immigrants, was deemed a trick by anti-immigration activists.
Oregon Ballot Measure 58, to limit ESL classes, failed 45% to 55%.
Missouri Constitutional Amendment 1, to make English the official language, passed overwhelmingly, 86% to 14%.

Races We’re Watching: Part 1

Amy Crawford — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 17:29:38 +0000

Two days before the election, the immigration issue and/or immigrant voters are playing a big role in a handful of Congressional races. Here’s what we’re watching:

Texas 22: Democrat Nick Lampson hopes to fend off a challenge from Republican Pete Olson with the help of South Asian voters. A Zogby poll has the Republican substantially ahead, but without any other polls to back it up, it would be unwise to accept it at face value. Still, this has been a Republican district for a long time.
Pennsylvania 11: Republican Lou Barletta is poised to topple long-time incumbent Paul Kanjorski, who has faced ethics challenges and anti-incumbent feelings in this blue-collar district. Barletta, made famous by his crusade against illegal immigration, is up by a handful of points.
Pennsylvania 10: Democrat Chris Carney is locked in a tight battle with Republican Chris Hackett, who is tapping into regional support for Lou Barletta. Hackett has expressed strong opposition to illegal immigration and won the endorsement of anti-immigration groups. Two local polls show him with a substantial lead in this long-time Republican district.
Florida 21: Polls are split between Republican Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Democrat Raul Martinez in this tight, nasty race. We are expecting a new generation of Cubans and voters from Nicaragua, Colombia and Venezuela to make this close in a district that has been dominated by conservative Cubans.
Florida 25: Lincoln’s little brother Mario Diaz-Balart is slightly ahead of Democrat Joe Garcia, though Real Clear Politics calls the race a toss-up. The dynamic is similar to that of Florida’s 21st.
Virginia 11: Keith Fimian (R) and Gerry Connolly (D) vie to replace popular moderate Republican Rep. Tom Davis. The Northern Virginia district has been trending blue in recent years, thanks in part to large populations of Asian and Latino immigrants.

Rust Belt Anxiety Means Immigration Still an Issue in Northeast Pennsylvania

Amy Crawford — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 03:11:03 +0000

Abandoned coal breakers are common features of Northeast Pennsylvania’s broken landscape. (Photo by Amy Crawford)

While national politicians are treating immigration as a non-issue, there are still places where it has the power to rile up a crowd. It makes sense in Arizona—that state borders Mexico—but immigration is also surprisingly hot in Pennsylvania.

News 21 has covered the Barletta-Kanjorski race in the state’s 11th Congressional district, but immigration is also an issue in the district to the north and west. Freshman Chris Carney, a Democrat, won the heavily Republican 10th district in 2006, largely because his opponent was rocked by a sex scandal. Carney’s challenger this year is Chris Hackett, a conservative Luzerne County businessman.

The most recent poll, conducted by Franklin and Marshall Colleges, showed Carney winning 39 percent to 25 percent with 36 percent undecided. With a little more than three weeks to go before the election, Carney is likely to win, but this remains a race to watch, if only because the Democrat will remain vulnerable in 2010.

Because his district is generally red (it went 60 percent for Bush in 2004), Carney has taken conservative stances on social issues, including immigration. Like Hackett, he supports English as a national language and opposes “amnesty.” Both candidates also support a path to citizenship, but say that illegal immigrants should have to leave the country first.

Hackett has been more successful at courting voters for whom immigration is a top issue. In May, Hackett sent a representative to an anti-illegal immigration rally in Hazleton which even Lou Barletta avoided.

Hackett knows which buttons to push when it comes to illegal immigration—when asked by local blogger Gort42 what he thought Carney had done to deserve ouster, Hackett cited Carney’s support of S-CHIP, or the State Children’s Health Insurance Program, explaining that it “takes dollars out of Medicare and uses them to provide health insurance to illegal immigrants.”

But Carney, backed by advertising funds from the Democratic National Campaign Committee, has fought back hard with an ad pointing out that Hackett hired an illegal immigrant as a housekeeper. (Hackett fired her when he learned of her immigration status, but he did not report her to federal authorities.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgQ-4lYyN-s

For the white, working class voters in Northeast Pennsylvania, illegal immigration is a stand-in issue for anxiety about the long-term economic changes that have ravaged the state. It remains to be seen whether today’s more acute economic anxiety will deliver the district to the Democrat in November, but regardless, illegal immigration is sure to crop up again in the 10th district.

Weekly Immigration News Round-Up, 10/11

Amy Crawford — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 01:26:19 +0000

John McCain and Barack Obama continue attacking one another over immigration, but only in Spanish-language ads. Each accuses the other of stymieing immigration reform.
Chris Hackett, the Republican challenging incumbent Rep. Chris Carney (D-Penn. 10) is attacking his opponent over illegal immigration. This district neighbors the district in which anti-illegal immigration mayor Lou Barletta is challenging Democrat Rep. Paul Kanjorski, and voter sentiments here are similar.
The Chicago City Council is calling for an end to immigration raids and deportations. The council unanimously approved a resolution asking political candidates to make their positions on immigration clear, and they expressed the need for comprehensive immigration reform.
Pro-immigrant activists gathered at Boston’s City Hall to protest a “broken” immigration system. The group, which is planning a nationwide tour, included several religious leaders.
A group of Senators led by Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) and Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) is calling for increased oversight of I.C.E. raids, like the ones in Postville, Iowa, Laurel, Miss., and Greenville, N.C. Kennedy and Menendez introduced the Protect Citizens and Residents from Unlawful Raids and Detention Act last month. (Stay tuned to the News 21 blog for a closer look at the bill.)

Real Clear Politics Lists Top House Races

Amy Crawford — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 02:14:29 +0000

Several of the congressional races News 21 has been following are on a new ranked list of 50 House races to watch. In some of these districts, immigration is an issue; in others, immigrant voters may tilt the election.

6. Texas 22 – Republican Pete Olson challenges Democrat Nick Lampson, who won this very Republican district in 2006 because of backlash against former Rep. Tom Delay. Perhaps Lampson’s last hope, a large South Asian population might save him.
11. Pennsylvania 11 – Democrat Paul Kanjorski faces Mayor Lou Barletta, whom Real Clear Politics calls a “near-celebrity.” Barletta earned that status by crusading against illegal immigration.
16. Pennsylvania 10 – Democratic incumbent Chris Carney defeated his Republican predecessor, Don Sherwood, in 2006 after Sherwood’s mistress accused him of trying to choke her. Carney is facing a stronger opponent this time in Chris Hackett. Tapping into regional support for Lou Barletta, Hackett has expressed strong opposition to illegal immigration.
36. Florida 25 – Republican Mario Diaz-Balart is in the first challenging race of his House career, against Democrat Joe Garcia. The race hinges on whether a new, more liberal generation of Cubans and voters from Nicaragua, Colombia and Venezuela outvote traditionally conservative older Cubans.
49. Florida 21 – Mario’s brother Lincoln Diaz-Balart is attempting to fend off Democrat Raul Martinez in a tight, nasty race. His situation is similar to Mario’s, though his district is more Republican.

Check out the list yourselves—are there any races that I missed? (Part 1, Part 2)