Election 2008: What’s At Stake?

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and her supporters may be looking ahead to 2012, but in western states that swung from red to blue, Republicans are eyeing 2010.

A top target for the GOP will be Nevada Sen. Harry Reid, who was re-elected Senate majority leader earlier this week. It’s good to be the king, except for the large target on your back that comes with the territory. In 2010, expect Reid to be one of the Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbents.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid campaigns for Barack Obama in early November. Reid is banking on the voter registration edge enjoyed by Nevada Democrats to propel him to re-election in 2010. (Getty Images)

Felling opposition party leaders offers a sweeter victory than just picking up a seat in congress. In 2004, Republicans couldn’t hide their excitement over defeating Sen. Tom Daschle, who served as both majority and minority leader depending on the Democratic party’s fortunes year to year. Democrats targeted Republican minority leader Mitch McConnell this year, but were ultimately unsuccessful at poaching the Kentucky senator’s seat. Reid will be just the latest target.

Las Vegas Sun political columnist Jon Ralston anticipates Reid’s re-election campaign “will be the most expensive, most watched and most vitriolic contest in state history.” Ralston argues team Reid “plays politics like a UFC match without rules,” and notes that “Reid Fatigue” could keep the senator from landing a fifth term.

A frequent target of Republicans, Reid has never been terribly popular. Reid had his best showing in his most recent campaign, winning 61 percent of the vote against challenger Richard Ziser, a poorly-financed Evangelical Christian not in sync with the more live and let live attitude of Nevada Republicans on social issues, in 2004. But his previous campaigns were all squeakers. In his closest match-up, Reid beat John Ensign (who would win Nevada’s open Senate seat two years later) by 400 votes in 1998.

Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki has stopped just short of throwing his hat in the ring, but called Reid “too liberal and too partisan for Nevada.” (National Journal ranked Reid 9th most liberal senator based on his 2007 voting record.) But in an editorial, the Las Vegas Review-Journal points to Reid’s handling of Sen. Joe Lieberman following the Democrat-turned-independent’s backing of Sen. John McCain for president as a sign that “Give ‘Em Hell Harry” can work the middle:

With the far-left wing of the Democratic Party still demanding a pound of flesh, Sen. Reid stuck by his word… Sen. Reid’s willingness to stand up to the yowling of unreasonable followers marks an encouraging start to his second go-round as Senate leader. We hope he can rein in what promises to be cornucopia of liberal legislation and look out for the interests of Nevada and its battered economy… He’ll need to display the kind of leadership he provided Tuesday if he expects Nevada voters to return him to office in 2010.

Ensign, who is plotting the state GOP’s comeback, said Rep. Jon Porter, who lost his bid for re-election to Dina Titus on November 4, is also a viable candidate. Ensign noted that losing a race today is no barrier to victory tomorrow in Nevada. Ensign won his seat in 2000 after losing to Reid two years earlier, and Titus beat Porter after losing her bid for governor in 2006. But with a gubernatorial election also on tap for 2010, RealClearPolitics reports that “top Republican challengers may have to be talked out of running for governor.”

The freshman members of congress — especially those whose districts switched party loyalty — will also be targets come 2010.

Among the most vulnerable freshman is Betsy Markey from Colorado’s 4th district. Observers continue to question whether Markey won or incumbent Marilyn Musgrave lost. Despite a double-digit loss, Musgrave — a social conservative who views gay marriage as a top concern — has yet to concede. The 4th district had been in Republican hands since 1973, and registered Republicans outnumber Democrats 168,689 to 123,281 (unaffiliated voters account for 154,516).

A number of potential challengers have already emerged, and Markey continues to portray herself as a moderate in the still conservative-leaning district. Rep. John Salazar has invited Markey to join the Blue Dog Coalition, a group of fiscally conservative Democrats, telling the Grand Junction Daily Sentinel “she’s a very moderate to conservative Democrat… [who would] make a great Blue Dog.”

Markey, a former aide to Salazar’s brother Sen. Ken Salazar, has so far demurred, but has made it known she won’t just follow the Obama administration blindly. “I may have an issue with some of [the] policies that come from this administration,” Markey told PolitickerCO.com. “If I don’t agree then I will vote against it.”