At The National Review, Mark Krikorian pooh-poohs the idea the idea that the Latino vote made a difference for Obama. While the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials says that between 9.6 million and 11 million Latinos voted in the election, an increase of at least 2 million over 2004, Krikorian notes that McCain would still have lost nearly all of the swing states if Latinos had given him the same 40 percent of the vote that they gave to Bush. Krikorian recommends Republicans not campaign for the Latino vote next time–it’s too small and will never go Republican, he says.

But Latinos are increasing their impact on the electorate. This year, according to the AP, they made up 9 percent of voters, compared to 7 percent in 2004. And this number is guaranteed to rise.

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Moreover, the AP notes that Obama could not have won New Mexico—by a margin of more than 14 points—without the Latino vote. Latinos there make up about 45 percent of the population, and had they not turned out two to one for Obama, the state could have fallen into the GOP column, as it did in 2004. Latinos clearly made a difference in North Carolina as well—though they make up only 2 percent of the electorate in that state, Obama won by a 0.4 percent margin.