Races We’re Watching: Part 1

Two days before the election, the immigration issue and/or immigrant voters are playing a big role in a handful of Congressional races. Here’s what we’re watching:

  • Texas 22: Democrat Nick Lampson hopes to fend off a challenge from Republican Pete Olson with the help of South Asian voters. A Zogby poll has the Republican substantially ahead, but without any other polls to back it up, it would be unwise to accept it at face value. Still, this has been a Republican district for a long time.
  • Pennsylvania 11: Republican Lou Barletta is poised to topple long-time incumbent Paul Kanjorski, who has faced ethics challenges and anti-incumbent feelings in this blue-collar district. Barletta, made famous by his crusade against illegal immigration, is up by a handful of points.
  • Pennsylvania 10: Democrat Chris Carney is locked in a tight battle with Republican Chris Hackett, who is tapping into regional support for Lou Barletta. Hackett has expressed strong opposition to illegal immigration and won the endorsement of anti-immigration groups. Two local polls show him with a substantial lead in this long-time Republican district.
  • Florida 21: Polls are split between Republican Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Democrat Raul Martinez in this tight, nasty race. We are expecting a new generation of Cubans and voters from Nicaragua, Colombia and Venezuela to make this close in a district that has been dominated by conservative Cubans.
  • Florida 25: Lincoln’s little brother Mario Diaz-Balart is slightly ahead of Democrat Joe Garcia, though Real Clear Politics calls the race a toss-up. The dynamic is similar to that of Florida’s 21st.
  • Virginia 11: Keith Fimian (R) and Gerry Connolly (D) vie to replace popular moderate Republican Rep. Tom Davis. The Northern Virginia district has been trending blue in recent years, thanks in part to large populations of Asian and Latino immigrants.
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