Election 2008: What’s At Stake?

While polls show Latino voters are leaning toward Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, John McCain’s campaign is making a play for Latino votes with a new radio ad, to be aired during the Democratic convention this week. The ad reminds Latinos that McCain worked with Democrats on comprehensive immigration reform, which ultimately failed due to opposition from both liberals and conservatives.

The ad, which is airing on Spanish radio in the Southwest, says:

When Hispanics needed a friend in Congress during the immigration debate, who stood up? Who spoke out? John McCain…. And while the bill didn’t pass, only McCain demonstrated a real commitment to reforming immigration in a way that honored our laws as well as our immigrants and traditions.

A Pew Hispanic Center study (PDF; scroll to page 11) conducted in 2006 showed that most Latinos supported a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants and a guest worker program, two elements of the immigration reform bill. But a more recent Pew poll has Latinos supporting Obama 66% to 23%. Among Latino voters, Obama’s favorability rating is 76% to McCain’s 44% favorable. With that kind of numbers, will this ad make any difference?