Election 2008: What’s At Stake?

Sen. Barack Obama affirmed his support for Israel once again last week while courting Jewish voters in Florida who are increasingly skeptical about his Israel policy. At the same time, Arab public opinion suggests ambivalence about Obama’s campaign.

Addressing Jewish voters’ concerns is paramount for Obama’s campaign, especially in the face of what N.Y. Times columnist Thomas Friedman called “rumors one can hear circulating among American Jews these days about whether Barack Obama harbors secret pro-Palestinian leanings.”

In his May 18 op-ed piece, Friedman wrote: “America today has — rightly — a bipartisan approach to Arab-Israeli peace that is not going to change no matter who becomes our next president. … The notion that a President Barack Obama would have a desire or ability to walk away from this consensus American position is ludicrous.”

A majority of people in the Middle East appear to agree — while viewing Obama’s presidential bid as historic, few believe his presidency is likely to steer the Middle East policy in a new direction. Obama is the most favored candidate in the region, but only 18 percent of Arabs believe he can “advance peace in the Middle East,” Voice of America reported earlier this month.

The interest in his campaign, however, seems to be arising in some unlikely places. Al-Jazeera recently posted this clip of a young man running a phone campaign from Gaza to bolster Obama’s chances of winning the primaries.

Obama is also the talk of the town in Doha and Riyadh and some young Arabs want to donate to the Obama campaign, writes Brookings Institution’s Senior Fellow Tamara Cofman Wittes.

At home, Obama is “the most popular democratic presidential candidate among Arab-Americans,” wrote Detroit Free Press last year, quoting a private poll conducted by Zogby International. According to the poll, 50 percent of Arab-American Muslim said they supported Obama and 37 percent of the Arab-American Democrats or Independents said they would vote for Obama in a primary.

The same poll showed Sen. Hillary Clinton had the support of 33 percent of the Arab-American Democrats or Independents. This was before the Democratic race narrowed down to two candidates, but in January there was still an “overwhelming support” for Obama, reported the Jerusalem Post.

Obama understands the “pain” of Arab-Americans, James Zogby, a Democratic superdelegate and the president of the Arab American Institute, was quoted as saying. He said he believes Obama understands concerns about discrimination Arab-Americans were subjected to following 9/11.

On the foreign policy front, Obama has departed from the more hawkish position adopted by his opponents on Iran and Iraq. On Israel and Palestinian peace process, he has professed an unequivocal support of Israel’s right to defense itself and has vowed to continue foreign aid to Israel as well as continue cooperation in the development of Arrow missle. He has said he will not talk to Hamas and will instead negotiate directly with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.