Election 2008: What’s At Stake?

At a Barack Obama rally in Orange County, Calif. on Saturday, a young staffer told the crowd of a Republican he met while campaigning in Iowa who caucused for Obama. This man — Alan McKee — was known in his community as the epitome of a dyed-in-the-wool Republican, but even he was drawn to Obama’s inspirational message.

“If Alan McKee can go for Barack, [Republican-dominated] Orange County can go for Barack,” said the staffer.

And in Minneapolis on Saturday, Obama spoke of the Republicans who whisper sweet support in his ear when he rolls into town.

This broad appeal might serve to inspire the Obama faithful as they canvas for votes in the general election, but with so much at stake in this heated primary season, they’d be well advised to leave Republicans alone. Try as they might, it’s too late in the game for a Republican would-be Obama supporter to switch sides.

But some made the switch early, and these newly-christened Dems will cast their votes alongside the party faithful and independent voters come Tuesday. No doubt some are disillusioned with their own party and will support any Democratic nominee, but others are joining the “Obamamania” bandwagon.

“I switched parties simply so I could vote in the primary for Barack Obama,” said Erik Paterson, manger of the California chapter of Republicans for Obama. Paterson added that should Hillary Clinton win the nomination, his vote will go to the Republican nominee.

At the Democratic Party of Orange County’s office on January 22 — the last day for new or revised voter registration in California — just under 40 percent of people were crossovers from the Republican ranks. Though some were Clinton supporters, the vast majority were for Obama, according to Lindsay Hopkins, DPOC political director.

With the surge in media coverage in the run up to the election, calls are still coming in from Republicans who want to know how to vote for Obama. “A lot of people don’t understand how primaries work… [but] clearly they’re dedicated because they’re calling the Democratic Party,” said Hopkins.

In the general election, pulling from across party lines can make the difference. Indeed, George W. Bush scored more Democratic voters than Gore or Kerry landed Republicans, according to CNN exit polling (2000, 2004). And in 1996, Bill Clinton pulled more Republicans than Bob Dole took Democrats.

It’s still too early to tell if scattered media reports (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, Sunday Times (UK), Newsweek) amount to anything more than a ripple. But anecdotal stories suggest that more Republicans than one might suspect are actively supporting Obama, with others waiting in the wings.

“I know that there are a lot of Republicans who choose not to switch their party affiliation but they plan on supporting Barack anyway,” said Patterson.

Obama’s camp has already started positioning him as the stronger challenger to a McCain Republican ticket, and highlighting Obama’s broad appeal — even across party lines — may help sway still undecided Dems.

“I think that we can attract independents and Republicans in a way Senator Clinton cannot,” Obama told Bob Schieffer on Face the Nation. In the interview, Obama also suggested that he would absorb most Clinton supports while she would probably lose some of the independents and Republicans that have been drawn to his campaign.

“I don’t think people vote party when so much is at stake,” said Rep. Xavier Becerra following his address to Obama supporters in Orange County. Rather, people ask themselves “How can I convey who I am through the person I elect to lead?”

Obama scored a 37 percent favorability rating among Republicans compared to Clinton’s 14 percent in the latest poll by the Pew Research Center — to say nothing of the 62 percent favorability rating among independents, a high among all candidates.

Though viewing someone favorably doesn’t necessarily equal votes, many Republicans seem to like Obama — or at least in comparison to Clinton.

Democratic voters might be asking themselves Tuesday not who will inspire the most Dems, but who will bring over the most Republicans.