A record number of Californians will turn out tomorrow for the primary elections, the Democratic results are too close to call – and ethnic voters will determine who wins, according to Mark DiCamillo of the Field Poll.
“It’s certainly one of the most interesting election cycles that I can remember,” DiCamillo said. “It’s all up for grabs.”
The pollster wowed the crowd at the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies despite several recent sleepless nights of poll work and worry, he said.
Among his points were:
-Obama is strong and getting stronger, and his appeal is bipartisan. If the presidential election were held now and pitted Obama against McCain, the latest numbers predict that Obama would win by 47 percent to 40 percent. If Obama were running against Mitt Romney, he would win by 56 percent to 31 percent. But if the election had Clinton vying against McCain, Clinton has just a two percent lead – of 45 percent to 43 percent.
“There’s some drawback to a Clinton candidacy,” DiCamillo said.
Even though the Illinois senator is pulling up to to Clinton in the Field Poll, there’s still 18 percent of undecided voters who could buck the Obama bandwagon. California’s undecided voters tend to be female or Latino and/or lower educated – all trademarks of “Hillaristas.”
2. In the last poll, the gender gap “truly became a divide.”
“The men are for Obama as much as HIllary’s people are for her,” DiCamillo said.
3. Obama’s got the men, the black vote, the youth and the post-grads – and Hillary’s got the women, the Latinos, high school graduates and the old folks. The middle age folks (and here that does include 30-year-olds) are “in flux,” DiCamillo said – though they are tending to shift to Obama, too.
On the Republican side, nothing is predictable either, DiCamillo said.
“I’m as unsure of the outcome of this race, in my own sleepless nights, as I am on the Democratic side,” he said.
There’s four candidates with support numbers in the double digits – McCain, Romney, Huckabee and Ron Paul.
And with a third of California’s Republicans identifying themselves as born-again Christians and with conservative pundits such as Rush Limbaugh using their airtime to shepherd Huckabee supporters into the Romney camp, who knows what will happen, according to DiCamillo.
And 14 percent of mail-in voters like Ron Paul. Weird.
















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